SSA Blog: Who will win the World Cup?

The first round is over, we have now seen each nation’s first foray into the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Far from giving us clarity, the intriguing the question of ‘who will win the competition?’ is perhaps even harder to predict than it was before the tournament started. The favourite nations have failed to convince, with only Ronaldo of the pre-tournament superstars has performed to a level worthy of the title.

Before everyone abandons their predictions, we take a look at three possible predictive models that might help you stick or twist.

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Candidate 1: FIFA world ranking

The first – and most obvious is the FIFA world rankings. One might reasonably assume number one in the world equates to the greatest likelihood of success.

On these grounds, the most obvious winner is Germany with Brazil as runners up. This might seem like a relatively solid bet on the surface; Germany after all, are defending champions and, despite an opening fixture defeat against a good Mexican team, have been in fine form in the intervening years. Only beaten by France in the Euro 2016 semi-finals and storming their World Cup qualification group with 10 wins from 10 games.

Brazil, meanwhile, has been undergoing a revamp since their 7-1 humiliation by the Germans on home soil in the 2014 World Cup. Subsequently, they have changed manager and won the notoriously difficult South Americas qualification group by 10 points. Despite only a point vs the now infamous giant killers Iceland, they have the attacking strength to test any team in the world.

Over the past 4 tournaments of the teams that have entered the World Cup carrying the number one ranking, no team has gone on to win. Indeed, the team ranked second has won in three out of the four tournaments (2002, 2010 & 2014), whilst Italy was not even within the top 10 of the world rankings (yet received a top-eight seeding for the draw) when they triumphed in 2006. Perhaps top-spot comes hand-in-hand with the weight of expectation?

Candidate 2: A more thought-out ranking?

Opta proposes an alternative prediction model. A team’s attacking and defensive strengths are factored from previous results, in conjunction with ‘World Cup specific variables’ to predict the outcome of each fixture. These include elements such as prospective fixture (and path) difficulty, home-field advantage for the tournament and previous world cup success. In their model, Brazil is predicted as the most likely winners, albeit with a mere 14.2 % chance of actually lifting the trophy. Germany, Argentina, Spain and France then jostle at around a 10% chance of glory.

However, once again the model is not able to factor how changes in personnel might affect a team. Opta themselves state, for example, that if Messi were to be injured Argentina’s chances of success would plummet.

Candidate 3: Competitiveness of Domestic Top-Tier League:

Finally, a paper in 2005 from Halicioglu used a statistical model to argue that the success of a nation’s team is related to the degree of competition in their top-tier domestic league. Arguing that a nation’s domestic league is the primary breeding ground for new talent (even if this talent subsequently moves abroad), the author posits that nations whose players have been exposed to more competitive domestic football will inherently attain a national squad with greater talent than one whose league is relatively less competitive. Essentially, the more unpredictable a nation’s domestic league champion, the more competitive that nation’s international team is likely to be. The author validated the model against the Euro 2000 tournament outcome, finding that France (the eventual winners) also had the least predictable domestic league at the time.

For those backing England, this model is the one to use to justify your choice. In the last 5 years, the English Premier League has seen 3 different winners and 5 different runners up. Among the tournament favourites, only the Brazilian league can match that competitiveness over the same time period.

Whilst the model appears to have good general predictive strength, it does not factor for the number of ‘home-nation’ eligible players within a domestic league. This may be an interesting moderator to add to the predictive model.

Who will win the World Cup?

The various factors contributing to team-sports make it near impossible to predict with any degree of certainty how a team might progress. Indeed, Halicioglu (2005) concedes that football is a highly volatile and unpredictable sporting environment. Measurable factors can be used to compute likelihood, whilst non-measurable factors then disrupt the prediction.

Looking at these three predictive models and the stats that surround them, come the 15th of July, a hard won point against Switzerland will be a distant memory as Brazil lift the World Cup…

Sport Science Agency works with brands, broadcasters, rights holders and agencies to create insight, experiences and content from the latest sport science research. If you want to know more just drop us a note via info@sportscienceagency.com and we can arrange to go for a healthy performance boosting drink. 

SSA Blog: England's captain fantastic?

Harry Kane has been announced as England Captain for the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia. The role of England Captain has long held an association, like the game in the UK, with the more physical aspects of the game. The captain is supposed to be the embodiment of the 3 Lions, the heartbeat of the team, the leader, based on a model seemingly drawn from a combative military history.

Football is now more professional than ever. Tournament football, which comes at the end of a long domestic season is increasingly demanding technically, tactically and emotionally. So, is a traditional chest pumping, hard tackling lead them over the trenches style of captaincy really the right fit for the modern game?

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The role of the captain has always generated debate. The build up to Russia 2018 has been no exception. Whether Gareth Southgate has added to the debate by not naming a fixed captain during his time as England manager is also a matter of opinion.

Part of the problem with naming a captain is the lack of clarity around the role. What is needed/expected from a captain, do different captains excel in different ways and do different teams and situations call for different types of captaincy and leadership?

Simple early research conducted decades ago highlighted that captains were often selected due to their high levels of performance and they tended to occupy central positional roles within a team. These basic propositions seem to have been followed to the present day with the majority of dissenting voices around Kane’s appointment pointing to his playing position rather than any lack of leadership quality.

In their 2014 study ‘The myth of the captain as principle leader’ Fransen et al, established four key leadership areas or roles that exist within a team, these were;

·       Task - linked to tactical advice and key in game performance decisions

·       Motivational – supporting and encouraging teammates to perform

·       Social – develops a positive team ethic and atmosphere

·       External – leads communications between the group and others such as coaches and media

In the same study, where the authors surveyed over 4000 team sport players, results showed that in almost half of cases the nominated captains were not perceived as the leader in any of the four categories outlined. This led them to conclude that a shared leadership model could actually be the most efficient way to maximise team cohesion and performance.

As mentioned earlier, Gareth Southgate may have added to the media speculation regarding the captaincy by sharing the responsibility around the group in the build up to the World Cup. In interviews since the announcement it has become clear that Kane knew his fate over a month before the media announcement. But has Southgate, by exposing Jordan Henderson, Gary Cahill and Eric Dyer to the role and formally establishing them in the minds of other players as captains, enabled him to build a wider leadership team which, according to the research can result in more effective outcomes?

Cotterill & Fransen suggested in their 2016 paper, examining leadership in team sports, that good captaincy can have a marked impact on performance. By identifying a number of players and sharing the leadership roles Southgate may have established a system that better supports the needs of modern international tournament captaincy.

Looking back at the areas identified as the role of a captain, in football, the tactical decisions are made by the manager and coaching staff so this area is of limited importance, particularly when dealing with elite well drilled players.

Under FIFA rules a captain must be named for the tournament to act as the focal point for officials. This then naturally expands to other groups such as fans and media fulfilling the external element of the job. But behind the scenes, as we have heard from so many previous tournaments, the motivational and social responsibility is key to establishing a happy and cohesive squad.

With three previous captains within the squad presented recently by the management team as leaders, the scope for effective leadership across these key areas is increased. Players are no longer limited in who they seek advice from, vent frustrations to, or socially engage with.   

Gareth Southgate has challenged the status quo in a number of ways since becoming England manager. In naming Harry Kane as his captain, it seems as if he has conformed to the old adage of your best player is the captain. However, the way he has developed other leaders within the group prior to the tournament shows his broader understanding of the demands associated with the role.

Should Kane be the England Captain? Of course.

Should Southgate be praised for the process by which he has developed this situation? Absolutely.

Sport Science Agency works with brands, broadcasters, rights holders and agencies to create insight, experiences and content from the latest sport science research. If you want to know more just drop us a note via info@sportscienceagency.com and we can arrange to go for a healthy performance boosting drink. 

SSA Blog: Federer's dark secret

SSA Blog: Federer's dark secret

Even the most disciplined athlete might be forgiven for reaching for a chocolate egg or two at this time of year. Whatever your preference, it is hard to avoid the plethora of treats available over Easter. But is this such a bad thing? Could athletes actually see some benefit from indulging in a little chocolate over the Easter holiday?

SSA Blog: The diet of a champion

SSA Blog: The diet of a champion

Midway through last season, a different spotlight was shone on Hamilton after he announced his decision to follow a vegan diet. Many questioned the wisdom of this lifestyle change at such a time, but any criticism was soon overshadowed by his imperious form following the mid-season break, which saw him storm to the driver’s crown with two races remaining.

SSA Blog: Sports ethical line

The spotlight of doping in elite sport shines on. Over recent years, heroes have fallen, state-sponsored doping has been uncovered and numerous high-profile athletes have been sanctioned, stripped of medals and banned from competing following evidence of doping violations. Last week, Sir Bradley Wiggins and Team Sky were back in the news, casting further aspersions on the reputation of elite cycling…

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On 5th March 2018, the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) select committee released a statement declaring that, Team Sky ‘crossed an ethical line’ in their use of Therapeutic Use Exemptions (TUEs). Specifically, the DCMS allege that the drugs administered, whilst therapeutic, were also devised and delivered to boost Wiggins’ performance levels.

"Drugs were being used by Team Sky, within World Anti-Doping Agency (Wada) rules, to enhance the performance of riders and not just to treat medical need,"                              DCMS Select Committee (05/03/18).

This ‘ethical line’ presents a problem for sponsors and partners. Brands showcase their vision and values through their sponsorships to create a favourable position with the sports’ fans. How then to rationalise that sponsorship when a sports person or team follow the letter of the law, breaks no rules, but cross an ‘ethical line’. Practices are either legal or banned.

This might seem like a cynical stance, but literature from elite sport supports it. Smith and Stewart, in their 2015 overview of doping in sport, highlighted how athletes are pressured to use substances to enhance their performance whilst remaining ‘clean’. This includes the possibility for an athlete benefiting from elevated doses of a banned substance via a TUE. Athletes know natural talent is not sufficient to reach the top echelons of performance and competition. To reach this level, advanced training, coaching, supplements and substances were cited as a necessity. Before financial incentives even figure, the concept of sporting failure is less desirable than the threat of sanction for a doping violation or the potential risk to their health

Herein lies the issue with TUEs; most banned substances are those devised to cure illness but may also produce a performance enhancing effect. Like anyone, athletes get ill, suffer from chronic ailments and pick up injuries. A TUE is then required for the necessary medicine to help the athlete recover and the grey area of performance enhancement opens. A grey area that athletes, teams, doctors and organisations can venture into to pursue ‘legitimate’ marginal gains. In this pursuit, morality and ethics do not form part of the equation, legality, as stated by Overbye and Wagner (2013) in the international journal of drug policy, is the name of the game.

The researchers argue that whilst TUEs are less efficient than using banned substances in enhancing performance, manipulating the system to gain a TUE is infinitely more accessible, safe and low-risk. Indeed, they highlight that in a cohort of 638 elite athletes in Denmark, only 2% had ever applied for a TUE and had that application rejected. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that a general distrust of the TUE system’s effectiveness in anti-doping exists.

With TUEs increasingly under the spotlight, brands partnering with elite sport must consider a response strategy to stories such as the one involving Wiggins and Team Sky. Whilst the DCMS’ conclusion over Team Sky’s TUE use may seem reasonable to many, it concludes that no rules were broken. In elite sport, this is all that matters to teams when it comes to doping.

Brands face a quandary. Should they stand by teams and athletes whose use of medication is questioned? Should they support athletes that fail tests due to innocent mistakes rather than deliberate cheating?

Controversially, Head and Nike stood by Maria Sharapova following her positive test for Meldonium in 2016. Porsche and Tag Heuer in contrast, terminated their contracts with the Russian star. Can the direct sporting performance values of Nike and Head help explain their stance vs those of Sharapova’s more lifestyle-based partnerships and the subsequent lack of negative backlash for all?

Athletes deserve the right to compete on a level playing field and to be safe when doing so. Anti-doping regulations and the TUE system should exist, but both apparently require more stringent regulation and enforcement to protect clean athletes and the sponsors involved in the sport. The idea that an athlete ends up on the right side of the rules but the wrong side of a so-called ethical line should be an anathema to all parties involved.

Only the governing bodies of sport can make the rule changes required to protect both athletes and sponsors. However, they seem unwilling or unable to make those difficult decisions. It may be time to take that responsibility away from organisations that are so intimately linked with the public perception of the sports they are policing. Maybe supporting organisations such as WADA could provide the next sponsorship opportunity for a forward-thinking brand.

Sport Science Agency works with brands, broadcasters, rights holders and agencies to create insight, experiences and content from the latest sport science research. If you want to know more just drop us a note via info@sportscienceagency.com and we can arrange to go for a healthy performance boosting drink. 

SSA Blog: The performance benefits of beer

SSA Blog: The performance benefits of beer

Beer companies have a long history of sports sponsorship. Beer remains a fixture within the top ten spending categories across the sponsorship industry. Major deals exist across high profile sporting properties such as the Football, Basketball and Rugby World Cups, which are synonymous with hospitality and fan engagement programmes.

SSA Blog: VAR and the physicality of football

Last week saw the introduction, into competitive English football, on a trial basis, of the video assistant referee technology system (VAR). It follows last season’s successful implementation of goal line technology and is the latest in a growing number of virtual, tracking or predictive technologies introduced to support officials and referees across sport.

Arguments as to the benefits and drawbacks have been well reported. What has gained less coverage is the potential impact regarding players’ physical load during a game.

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Throughout sport, rule changes and the introduction of technology have affected how the game is played and the nature of the players playing it. Tennis is a prime example.  Players often use the challenge system tactically, in an attempt to break opponents’ momentum or gain extra recovery time following a high-intensity rally.

Football at the highest level requires players to combine a number of fitness elements. It involves high intensity sprinting, accelerations, strength, an endurance base as well as the application of skill and mental agility to deal with tactical demands.

In the English Premier League, the average 90 minute game sees the ball in play for 56.17 minutes. Players are covering distances of nearly 11km per game of which over 10% is covered at high speed. But the biggest increase in activity levels has come in the number of high intensity runs players now make. Data from Barnes et al, back in 2014, showed that players were making 49% more high speed runs than in 2007 and the total distance and intensity numbers are expected to have continued to rise.

The game is undoubtedly speeding up though many have argued VAR may slow it down. What they actually mean is, VAR will impact the ball in play time. But can VAR actually increase ball in play time? Or could it lead to changes in player load and even greater physical demands?

A recent study examining the evolutionary changes in activity and recovery in Rugby League, published by Gabbett & Hulin (2017) in the Journal of Sport Sciences, showed the greatest impact on ‘ball in play’ time resulted from video referee stoppages. It also showed that ‘in game recovery’ time actually increased. So, while video referee referrals reduced the ‘ball in play’ time, it also produced greater recovery time for players, which can enable greater player load/exertion levels to be reached during games.

Could the same be a consequence of the introduction of VAR in football?

There are two areas to consider here:

  1. Will VAR reduce ball in play time?
  2. Will VAR effect in game recovery (and therefore training practices to address this)?

Until the system has been fully trialled and evaluated it is difficult to answer either of these questions. However anecdotal evidence from goal line technology points to more ball in play time as players no longer challenge the referee during breaks. This leads to play being resumed without incident. Evidence from Rugby League and Rugby union on the other hand, suggests that ball in play time has been reduced by the introduction of video technology as game time is lost during those time on and time off moments during referrals.

The really interesting analysis will be the impact, if any, on the players physical demands. Will, as we have seen in Rugby League, increased in game recovery time allow players to compete at even higher intensities once play resumes? Will more effective decision making mean less stoppages and a reduction of in game recovery? And what impact will this have regarding player preparation in order to cope with the potential physical challenges VAR might bring.  

It’s too early to know how VAR will impact player load and the physical demands of the Premier League.  As the system’s adoption increases, sport science teams will evaluate how its introduction impacts areas such as ball in play and in game recovery. If it does, as in both codes of Rugby, start to alter the physical demands of the game, the challenge for clubs will be to adapt training, ensuring players are prepared for these new demands. 

Sport Science Agency works with brands, broadcasters, rights holders and agencies to create insight, experiences and content from the latest sport science research. If you want to know more just drop us a note via info@sportscienceagency.com and we can arrange to go for a healthy performance boosting drink. 

 

SSA Blog: Sport Science in 2017

With 2017 drawing to a close we look back at three significant stories that shaped the sport science year and will continue to have an impact into 2018, both inside and outside the performance arena. 


Nike Breaking 2
Without doubt the biggest sport science story this year was Nike’s attempt to break the 2 hour marathon barrier. The 2 hour barrier is one of athletics last great challenges. Indeed, it was postulated as long ago as 1991 that a time of 1.57:58 was possible under perfect conditions. Nike’s project was four years in the making and brought together some of the best minds in sport science as well as an interesting group of 3 athletes who had been drawn from an initial 60 strong cohort. 

Eliud Kipchoge 2017.jpg


The combination of Nike’s financial backing, scientific excellence and some of the world’s elite performers lead many to believe a sub 2 hour time would be possible.   
As the project developed, it became clear that this would not be a legitimate world record attempt during one of the major marathon events. From a sport science point of view, this didn’t matter. If anything, it makes it more exciting as it allowed the sport science team to think the unthinkable and take the athletes outside the usual constraints of racing in order to seek the limits of human endurance.


Every aspect of performance was examined with an obvious emphasis on the training and preparation of the athletes.  Areas such as VO2max, Lactate Threshold and Running Economy were all evaluated at the start of the project to identify who the researchers thought were the athletes with the physiology capable of sustaining the training load and having a realistic chance of hitting the sub 2 hour goal.  


But physiology is only part of what makes an athlete great. Other areas the researchers looked at included the course, environmental temperature, humidity, altitude and obviously, being Nike research, the shoes. The researchers also became increasingly interested in the psychology of their runners. Ultimately the effort didn’t manage to produce a sub 2 hour performance - Eliud Kipchoge came within 25 seconds of achieving the goal. That is less than a second per mile.


When evaluating the effort, the main performance benefit seemed to come from the drafting formation, developed using support runners throughout the record attempt. Nike commissioned wind tunnel research to ensure they positioned support runners in the most effective formation to maximise the drafting effect. This finding may have huge potential for distance running in the future. In cycling, drafting and protecting the GC rider is a long-established principle. Running has always been seen as a more individual sport and while runners will often train together, rarely do they compete in such a strict team formation.


Nike’s Breaking 2 didn’t manage to achieve athletics' last great barrier, but with its drafting and team formation research, it has provided a model for how it might be achieved both in a scientific experiment and ultimately in a major city marathon.         

The Rise of the Aging Athlete
As human beings live longer, and medicine and sport science continue to develop, it should be no surprise that athletes have been able to take advantage and extend their careers. Roger Federer, Tom Brady, Zlatan Ibrahimović and Serena Williams have all dazzled fans, media and fellow performers this year despite their relative age, which has left people searching for the secret elixir of these supposed super agers.

Roger Federer 2.jpg


As with much in sport at the elite level, an athlete’s ability to maintain performance into their 4th decade is a mix of genetic and lifestyle factors. Generally, the key anabolic hormones associated with muscle growth and maintenance begin to decline in the mid to late 30’s. This can have a particularly profound effect on an athlete’s ability to produce power which inevitably has an effect on performance elements such as sprinting, acceleration, striking force and change of direction speed.


New developments regarding training, diet, injury prevention and recovery strategies have allowed more athletes to maintain their careers into their early to mid 30’s. However, the ability to perform at the highest level needs to be supported by a strong motivational drive to train and also the emotional intelligence to accept limitations and plan in order to peak for specific periods during the year. 


Sport science will continue to elongate athlete’s careers. Better understanding of the genetics, training responses, diet and recovery will combine to support the physiological demands. But the greatest elements in the near future will be development of psychological and intellectual understanding to further help athletes develop the mental skills needed to cope with managing the latter stages of sporting careers.


This generation of athlete, with the support of developing sport science, has proved that age is no longer the barrier it once was. This has altered perceptions as to the impact older athletes can have. It will pave the way to extending athlete contracts and the age profile within which elite sport operates.
       
Welfare and Winning
Athlete welfare hit the back pages this year following a number of allegations made by athletes within the Olympic sport system. The cyclist Jess Varnish lead the wave of criticism directed at National Governing bodies funded by UK Sport and subscribing to the so called ‘no compromise’ strategy focused on Olympic and Paralympic success. 


The treatment and culture within which athletes were expected to perform began to come into question. Had the ‘no compromise’ system that has seen unprecedented Olympic success over the past decade been at the expense of athlete welfare? Or is an elite performance environment just that and not everyone can handle the demands they are faced with?


Athletes and coaches were asked for their opinions and experiences with many defending the systems that had helped them achieve their sporting goals. But the allegations kept coming.  


National governing bodies have employed performance lifestyle experts for a number of years in order to support the wider lifestyle aspects of athletes. The goal was to support athletes in developing world class performance habits while they are away from the track, pool or velodrome. However, for some, when the sport becomes all encompassing it can easily become too much, pressure builds, motivation dips and performance inevitably suffers. 


Across sport, coaches and athletes will have different approaches, views, interests and motivational strategies. This is no different from any workplace. In the major professional sports, players have the ability to move and perhaps find a team that ‘fits’ their outlook and personality. Within the Olympic system in the UK, each sport generally only allows athletes one major training environment within which they have to adhere to the culture and expectations that are often entrenched. 


Performance systems are key to producing success. The continuity that exists across the British system has turned Team GB into a global sporting powerhouse (compare this with the relative reactionary approach seen within football). However, these systems need to continually evolve and develop in order to support athletes from a broader talent pool, often that broader talent pool is a consequence of their own previous success. 


Elite sport is tough. Many with the physical talent, simply don’t have the psychological resilience, drive or desire to sustain the training load and lifestyle sacrifices needed. Pushing athletes mentally as well as physically is part of the selection process. It allows coaches and performance managers to assess how athletes perform under pressure and ultimately evaluate if they are developing the required skills to win on the biggest stage. This will mean athletes taken out of their comfort zone, it will mean pressure to perform in training and it will mean being able to meet high standards across everything they do, with consequences if these challenges cannot be successfully met. 


The challenge of sport science is to recognise the individuality of athletes and create systems that can dial up or down the support and challenges that athletes need in order to progress their careers, be that within the sport or leaving it to focus on other challenges.


As we look forward to an Olympic year in 2018 the trajectory for sport science is only upward. The increase in financial rewards across professional sport, the global attention an Olympic Games brings and the continuous health challenges we face, all look to sport science for support. The development in technology, the increased interest in psychology and advances in genetic medicine will provide new avenues for sport Science to explore in the coming years. Who knows what 2018 will bring, but you can be sure sport science will be at the forefront.      
 

SSA Blog: What it takes to win a Grand Tour - or two...

Riders performances, like in any sport, consist of a number of interdependent factors. Cycling at its professional level contains some of the most elite endurance athletes in the world. To achieve this level takes enormous dedication, going through years of training to develop the endurance adaptations needed to compete within the professional peloton.

SSA Blog: The value of talent

SSA Blog: The value of talent

Talent identification is the Holy Grail of sport science. Being able to apply scientific understanding to spot and develop young athletes and turn them into future champions is the goal of every major sporting organisation. But it is not only sport science that cares about talent development. With the huge transfer fees now being applied across European and particularly Premier League football, fans, agents and owners are now very aware of the value of talent identification. Yet the number of home grown players taking to a Premier League field each week is falling, so what can be done to arrest the decline?

SSA Blog: To captain The Pride

SSA Blog: To captain The Pride

Lions selection is always a hot topic. This year’s entire RBS 6 Nations was played under the shadow of the Lions tour to New Zealand. Every game (involving the home nations) was analysed within the context of who had done enough or otherwise to earn a place on the aeroplane to Auckland.

SSA Blog: Is being a Jockey the toughest job in sport?

It's estimated that globally, 600 million people tune in to watch the Grand National. Last year, Channel 4 reported viewing figures of 10 million, 3 million more than the BBC reported for the FA Cup Final. With the glamour and interest the surrounds national fixtures such as The Grand National, The Cheltenham Festival and Royal Ascot, to the casual observer, the sport of kings looks like a fantastic place to ply your trade.

Recently, sport science has focused lots of attention on weight making sports, particularly combat sports. However, for professional jockey’s the need to maintain a low body mass throughout the season creates a challenge unlike any other in sport.

While professional boxers ‘weigh in’ the day before a fight, Jockeys are required to jump on the scales before every race. This puts huge, consistent pressure on riders, consequently many resort to terrible tactics including dehydration, appetite-suppressants, vomiting, laxatives and a chronic low calorie diet that can have health threatening consequences.    

Minimum riding weights in the UK are traditionally low, encouraging Jockeys to push for greater losses in the belief that owners favour lighter riders. The ability to consistently make weight is certainly seen as a sign of professionalism within the industry. But this has led to Jockeys using rapid weight loss techniques. In a study published in 2012, George Wilson and his team showed that Jockeys might lose as much as 4.5kg (around 6.7% of body mass) in under 24 hours in order to secure a ride.

This sort of rapid weight loss can cause a number of issues, from headaches and nausea right through to reported deaths (Centres for Disease Control and Pretension, 1997). Rapid weight loss isn’t the only problem. The transient nature of horse racing and nomadic existence of jockeys means support structures and routines that help other athletes prepare for elite performance are often lacking. It isn’t surprising then that numerous studies report a constant poor quality, low energy diet.

In a follow up study, Wilson et al (2013) investigated a number of biomarkers in professional Jockeys with the belief that their health was at risk because of the lifestyle associated with weight making. Worryingly, their findings supported the hypothesis. A number of riders displayed issues ranging from chronic dehydration, which was described as “not only detrimental to athletics performance but also potentially dangerous to health”, through to vitamin D deficiencies with the potential for “reduced neuromuscular performance”. Perhaps the most sticking finding was reduced bone mass and Calcium levels, well below those recommended for daily health, let alone athletic populations. Osteomalacia was seen in a number of participants which not only increases the risk of fractures but will also inhibit the healing process. Not a great prospect for a professional already at high risk of broken bones due to falls.

Recently it’s been suggested that energy restriction and dehydration can have mental as well as physical consequences. Martin Eubank, part of Wilson et al’s (2013) study, observed higher than average anger, depression and fatigue as well as lower than average levels of vigour. The team have suggested that these negative mood states can be corrected via “dietary intervention” but when weight making is effectively your living, it is a hard balance to find.

Earlier this year John O’Reilly and a team of researchers published ‘in race’ data that found Jockeys were operating at 90% Heart Rate max during races. This demonstrates Jockeys are performing at a level of physicality concurrent with other elite athletes. The team also echoed the results from previous studies regarding reduced bone health, dehydration issues and chronic lack of macronutrients.

O’Reilly‘s research illustrates the incredible challenge that professional jockeys face. They are expected to compete at a physically elite level, often throughout a full day, while enduring sub-optimal nutritional, physiological and psychological states which undoubtedly impact on performance and increase the risk of injury in the short and illness in the long term.

British Horse Racing is taking these finding very seriously and has put together a programme to help educate and support Jockeys in relation to nutrition, training and recovery. They have also raised minimum weights in response to some of the research quoted above. But with constant weight making still at the heart of the profession, the extremes Jockeys are willing to put themselves through, the risks they are willing to accept and the physicality associated with piloting a half ton animal so we can have a flutter surely makes being a Jockey the toughest job in sport.  

SSA Blog: Stick or Twist? When to sack a manager

Leicester City head to Anfield tonight without Claudio Ranieri for their first game since his departure. He becomes this terms fifth Premier League manager to lose his job, following a disappointing defence of last season’s incredible title win.

Ranieri’s departure has divided football. So, should Leicester have stuck by their man or were they right to recognise a performance issue that support and loyalty wasn’t going to fix?

A number of studies have examined the impact of managerial changes across professional sport. Perhaps the most comprehensive in English football was published by Audas et al, in 2002. They examined results and managerial changes from every professional game for almost 20 years. Their model was able to assess the impact of short-term changes, meaning those which occurred within the season, rather than just season to season variations. Interestingly, they found clubs who made changes mid-season actually fair worse than those that don’t.

Last season, 12 premier league managers were sacked, 9 during the season, including 3 managers of 2 eventually relegated clubs, Newcastle and Aston Villa.    

Using last season’s example it can be argued, in conflict with Audas and his team, that a managerial switch will work. Swansea, Chelsea and Sunderland were all threatened with relegation when a change was made. If the objective was to avoid relegation, then these changes have to be seen as successful, if only in the short term.

A University of Warwick analysis by Bridgewater (2009), found that managerial changes do create a short term ‘bounce’ on team results. He attributed this to players attempting to impress a new manager to secure future employment. The paper described a ‘honeymoon period’ that would last between 12 and 18 games before performance regressed to pre-change levels.

However, it’s easy to review performance after the event, drawing conclusions about long vs short term benefits. When a club is facing relegation from the increasingly lucrative Premier League as Leicester City is, is there any research to support the decision-making process?

One study which attempted to develop an evaluation model was published by Chris Hope in 2003. Hope’s study, ‘When should you sack a football manager?’ identifies three key variables a club must consider when making a decision regarding the manager’s future:-

  1. Honeymoon – the period during which the club will not consider sacking a manager

  2. Trapdoor – average number of points per game that is expected

  3. Weighting – importance of recent results versus previous performance

The author presents a mathematical model to be used in real time with the above parameters adjusted according to a club’s performance objectives. Hope acknowledged a number of limitations with his model but it marked a quality step into a multifaceted issue that any empirical evidence base would help support.

Bell et al, (2013) published ‘The performance of football managers: skill or luck?’ Building on Hope’s 2003 work, Bell’s model is a complex equation that takes into consideration performance, while also factoring the increased financial influence of the game. This ensures it doesn’t favour managers presiding over expensive squads. Their model uses the flowing six criteria:-

  1. Total player wage bill

  2. Total net transfer fund

  3. Total number of injured players

  4. Total number of suspended players

  5. Total number of unavailable players (e.g African Cup of Nations)

  6. Total number of non-Premier League games

Leicester City increased their transfer spending and wage bill by 82% and 37% respectively on the previous season and while player availability has been reduced, the correlation (.75) between wages and points would more than compensate for this.

When we examine Leicester City’s performances this season, particularly with the weighting given to the last 5 games (as proposed by Hope, 2003), the numbers show that the decision to sack Ranieri was the correct one. According to Hope (2003), a rating below .74 points per game (when adjusted) should result in the sack. Ranieri’s rating was .66……

Those that believe Leicester City should have stuck by Ranieri are arguing for a season long ‘Honeymoon period’ following the title win. This is a reasonable position to take, particularly for a fan. But in the increasingly commercialised Premier League, the numbers justify the owners decision to let Claudio go.  

SSA Blog: How does he still do it?

SSA Blog: How does he still do it?

The ageing process begins to induce a decline in male physical ability around the early 30’s. Borgest and a team of researchers in Australia highlighted the naturally occurring declines in metabolic, cardiovascular and hormonal systems as the precursors for performance decrements in their review study of 2015. These genetic factors cannot be escaped. And while, in well-trained populations, the performance effects often do not become significant until their early 40’s, In the tiny margins of elite sport any decline can become evident very quickly.

SSA Blog: Festive Football - Not just an injury concern

As English football enters the most congested period of the season all the usual debates about player fatigue and injury prevention have started. Managers talk about player welfare and the need for ample recovery time. Add to this the increasing tactical maturity of the Premier League and it is not surprising that managers, coaches and players often voice disapproval regarding the short turnaround times between games at this time of year.  

SSA Blog: Is missing out on European Football really beneficial?

European competition has returned this week, after another hectic weekend in the Premier League. Chelsea have now opened up a three-point gap at the top of the table. So as teams prepare for the busy December and January playing schedule, it is no surprise that the ‘benefits of not being in Europe’ theories have begun to take shape.

SSA Blog: Life after sport - how athletes handle the transition to retirement

Retirement happens to every athlete in every sport. At the end of each season or Olympic cycle, countless athletes are faced with the most difficult decision of their careers. And those in a position to make that decision for themselves are the lucky ones.